mardi 20 mai 2008

Yves Cochet, Pétrole Apocalypse, Fayard, 2005

« La hausse du cours des hydrocarbures ne sera pas un simple choc pétrolier, ce sera la fin du monde tel que nous le connaissons. »

Au vu du prix actuel du pétrole, c’est-à-dire très bon marché, cet été sera peut-être une des dernières occasions pour beaucoup de s’offrir un voyage sur un long courrier. Personnellement, j’ai réservé un circuit en Egypte pour le mois de septembre, et il m’en a déjà coûté une surtaxe « carburant » de 51 euros sur le prix initial. Bien entendu, le vendeur m’a prévenu, ce n’est qu’un acompte. Qui sait à combien sera le baril d’ici septembre…


Cette situation ne me surprend guère. La lecture du livre d’Yves Cochet –publié en 2005, une éternité !- m’avait déjà sensibilisé sur l’imminence de la crise pétrolière dont la situation actuelle n’offre qu’un léger avant-goût. Les marins-pêcheurs, les Tour Operators, les taxis, les routiers ont vraiment beaucoup de souci à se faire... Mais après eux, ce sera à la société toute entière de trinquer à son tour. Car le fondement même de notre civilisation – et de la mondialisation – repose sur un pétrole bon marché. C’est cette page de l’histoire du monde qui est en train d’être tournée. Nous rentrons dans l’ère du pétrole cher, voir très cher. Et c’est un choc sans précédent, surtout si on l’additionne aux autres chocs à venir, climatique et démographique…


Voici ce qu’écrit Yves Cochet en 2005 :
« Une simple poursuite de la tendance à la hausse observable depuis 2002 entraînerait un cours du baril à 100 dollars en 2008 (nous sommes déjà à 120 !), à 200 dollars en 2011. Et à 300 dollars en 2015 (…). »

Pour Yves Cochet, cela ne fait aucun doute: nous sommes devant l’imminence du « Peak Oil » ou « Pic de Hubbert », c’est-à-dire le moment fatidique à partir duquel la production mondiale de pétrole commencera à décroître inexorablement, entraînant un bouleversement sans précédent de notre mode de vie car il n’existe à l’heure actuelle aucune alternative énergétique. Sans compter que changer prend du temps. Ce choc imminent marquera la fin de l’ère du pétrole bon marché, une période qui aura duré 150 ans. Yves Cochet place ce pic très tôt, d’ici à 2 ans seulement, en 2010… Qu’il ait tort ou raison sur la date exacte, il y a urgence à mobiliser nos sociétés sur cette problématique.


Car les conséquences seront désastreuses pour l’Humanité : décroissance de la mobilité des humains et des choses, hausse sans précédent des prix des denrées alimentaires, famines, guerres énergétiques (songez à l’Irak et au Darfour)…


Pour retarder et atténuer ce choc, le remède
est à la fois simple et utopique : sobriété et décroissance de la consommation et des échanges pour économiser le pétrole encore disponible de manière à nous laisser le temps de bâtir les sociétés de basse consommation énergétique de demain. Mais quel dirigeant pourrait se permettre de tenir un tel discours alors que tous nous vendent encore la mondialisation comme une chance pour la planète ? Autant dire que la catastrophe est inévitable…

« Le slogan qui résume la philosophie des transports actuels est : Plus vite, plus loin, plus souvent et moins cher. Dans moins de quinze ans, il sera nécessairement : Moins vite, moins loin, moins souvent, et plus cher. »

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